I think he might be on the higher end and Jared Goff might be on the lower end but they both live inhabit the same neighborhood. All three players are listed as questionable for this Sunday's divisional game against the Cowboys, but if one or any of them are out, the Eagles may roll with a conservative game plan once again. In reply to Well, if your average play by KnotMe. I just think we've seen enough of Stafford at this point to cement the fact that he's not really more than a tier 3 quarterback. The Bills are back on top of the Football Outsiders DVOA ratings despite the loss. 2004 AFCE #NUM! Their special teams methodology puts the Vikings fifth in the league. Other advanced metrics do have the Vikings higher than DVOA does. Or, to put it another way, DVOA thinks the things that the Vikings did well and resulted in them winning this game were mostly "noise" and non-predictive of future success. Indianapolis DAVE rating is higher because it is now once again based on a projection with Matt Ryan at quarterback. Cowboys 2, Eagles 6, Giants 8, Redskins 9, 2t. Exclusive Premium Content For Subscribers. The top two teams in DVOA both lost this weekend, In reply to Just a friendly FYI, a by takeleavebelieve. NFL Week 10 - The Buffalo Bills may have fallen to the Minnesota Vikings in the most exciting game of the year, but we still think they are the best team in the NFL. They're 25th in pass DVOA since Week 4, below such dominant aerial attacks as Chicago and Tennessee. Rk Team Rec FBS FEI OFEI Rk DFEI Rk NDE Rk ELS Rk GLS Rk ALS Rk 1 Georgia 14-1 13-1 1.65 1.58 3 1.93 1 2.65 1 2.23 2 5.72 2 9.78 2 2 Alabama Use promo code DERRIK to save 10% on any FO+ membership and give half the cost of your membership to tip Derrik. Football Outsiders ranks Miami at No. Also, the opposite of "boom-or-bust" would be "consistent," which would be defined by a low standard deviation. Week 14 Staff Picks: Can Anyone in NFC Stop Eagles? Exclusive Premium Content For Subscribers. Again, that's a huge change in EPA that we aren't counting in DVOA at all because it says nothing about how good the Vikings defense is. In reply to Bills defensive DVOA by laflamablanca87. The main problem, though, is that these extraordinary plays rarely repeat. Though I believe red zone plays get a bonus. In reply to Justification Makes No Sense by Jblades13, "but DVOA says the Bills were significantly better than the Vikings. And that's actually kind of reasonable to an extent because Stafford, for all his faults, is much better than Flacco or Brad Johnson or certainly Trent dilfer. Thatll win you 12-14 games and maybe even a SB ring. The best division prior to 2002 by average DVOA rating instead of rank is the 1992 NFC East at 14.3%. No one will care now because of the results, but I suspect in reality Goff isn't all that dissimilar from Stafford. In fact, their DVOA rating moved up this week.. I see their offense being a little better than what DVOA says, and see their defense as being a little worse. Exclusive Premium Content For Subscribers. Terms of Use | Privacy Policy | Cookie Policy | Responsible Gaming, College football power ratings and analysis based on Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI), Support Football Outsiders' independent media and . Use promo code, Sunday NFL Liveblog: Eagles, Giants Fight for Playoffs, Khalil Mack Key to Chargers' Chances Against Dolphins, Jason Kelce's All-Time Block Leads Eagles Over Titans. Historical Lookups. I.e. It's all rendered moot now because they won the Sb, But I thought the decision to trade Matthew Stafford was a fascinating insight into perceived value. near the middle of the pack in DVOA and DYAR, both rushing and receiving. It depends on what you mean by a strong division. Pollard finishes as the best player at his position in by Team; as of a Specific Week; Single Game DVOA. WebDVOA measures a team's efficiency by comparing success on every single play to a league average based on situation and opponent. Football Outsiders ranks Miami at No. Coach Mike McDaniel on the team remains on the West Coast as they prepare for Sunday nights battle against Justin Herbert and the Los Angeles Chargers. And stop talking about my onus! The Patriots allowed a 40.5% defensive rushing DVOA against the Baltimore Ravens in Week 3, led by Lamar Jackson's 107 rushing yards and a touchdown on 11 carries. Another big gap comes on special teams. In reply to I seem to recall that DVOA by fyo. Maybe even look like a proper HoF. by Team; as of a Specific Week; Single Game DVOA. Explore sample content below to see what you're missing. 8 in the league with a team DVOA of 14.1 percent. Explore sample content below to see what you're missing. Also long gains are field position dependent. We know you are here for the FREE analytics, not the ads. Maybe that's where you and I differ because I do think they're much closer than people otherwise think. The Cowboys remained in second place in defensive DVOA, with the New England Patriots and Bills switching places in first and Explore sample content below to see what you're missing. What are the exact ranges that makes a team boom or bust? 8 in the league with a team DVOA of 14.1 percent. It's still a little strange that DVOA doesn't have the Kansas City Chiefs higher -- they did move up one spot this week to No. Explore sample content below to see what you're missing. Rams 5, 49ers 6, Seahawks 9, Cardinals 10, 5. An offense with Tyreek Hill, for instance, will actually be a little better than what DVOA indicates, in my opinion. You may be tempted to disregard it as an outlier, but a better approach would be to use it to assign better values to extraordinary plays that better align with their impact on the game. In reply to The fumble was worth -501.8% by Bryan Knowles. The Miami Dolphins face the Los Angeles Chargers in a Sunday Night Football Week 14 contest. Let's get to it. What if we looked at the average DVOA instead of the average DVOA rank? Chubb has the third highest DVOA in the NFL, and Hunt is sitting 12th. Just a friendly FYI, a fundamentally incorrect approach cant be hand-waived away. Rk Team Rec FBS F+ OF+ Rk DF+ Rk FEI Rk SP+ Rk; 1: Georgia: 13-0: 12-0: 2.67: 1.69: 7: 2.40: 1: 1.51: 1: 36.7 Regardless, if the bills recover that fumble it's a safety and the Vikings still have a very reasonable chance of winning that game. Football Outsiders content published by ESPN. Week 13 DVOA Preview: Chiefs Slide, Cowboys Ambush; USC Falls Hard, TCU Makes Playoff Despite Loss; & Support Derrik Support Football Outsiders' independent media and . Terms of Use | Privacy Policy | Cookie Policy | Responsible Gaming, Support Football Outsiders' independent media and . Mike recently wrapped up a six-year run as the NFL Lead Columnist for Bleacher Report; his popular Monday Morning Digest feature will presumably be replaced by Use promo code, Sunday NFL Liveblog: Eagles, Giants Fight for Playoffs, Khalil Mack Key to Chargers' Chances Against Dolphins, Jason Kelce's All-Time Block Leads Eagles Over Titans. It would be interesting to see, by comparison, what the Bills stop of the Vikings the previous play on 4th down was worth in DVOA. However, that would favor divisions that had one superlative team in a year with less parity than 2022. Football Outsiders content published by ESPN. "you could define boom-or-bust as, over 50% of plays are 1 standard deviation from the mean.". For example, Four teams with 0% DVOA result in a weighted average of 0%, while a combination of two team at 50% DVOA and two at -50% DVOA comes to a weighted average of -13.4%. The Vikings are the first team to ever have an 8-1 record with a negative DVOA. I'm interested to know how much of a defensive adjustment there is here too, this is a Bills defense that coming into this game (with a small sample size) was allowing 9 points per game and just over 300 yards per game at home. For example, let's compare Minnesota's rank in DVOA by down to EPA per play: That's weird, right? "This game tests the limits and baseline values for a metric like DVOA. Disregarding the kneel down, the Vikings offense put up 16 points and nearly 300 yards of offense in their final 4 drives. Passes per game and yards per game are more useful for fantasy football players. For the most part, it's hard to tell! Would be to calculate 1+DVOA for each team in the division and multiply the results. Overall, I wonder if there's room for thinking about why this year's 8-1 Vikings team is lower rated than last year's 4-5 Vikings team (if memory serves.) Had good protection, and thus had a very good game, but threw the most horrific red zone interception you'll ever see, and was fortunate to have it negated by penalty. The entire offseason vibes felt like a team treating this season as a victory lap. Well, check out the stat splits: That last one is particularly important because one of those fumbles was the botched center-quarterback exchange for the Bills that resulted in Minnesota's go-ahead touchdown. But you are comparing him to Stafford who is a prominent expert on throwing pick-sixes. Georgia remains on top of our college football ratings, with a Big Ten/SEC split in the top five. 21 of the last 26 Vikings games have been 1 score games. Geometric mean of 100% + DVOA (which you described) could work. Needless to say, this is the best duo in the league by a comfortable margin. If there are any TCU fans still reading that haven't yet thrown their device across the room in disgust at these numbers and the obvious disrespect, I can certainly understand the perspective that these ratings and projections are meaningless in the context of producing a Big 12 champion.The Horned Frogs are undefeated (8-0 overall, 7-0 Once you have enough statistical data over several years (or decades), then we can match up statistics to what we see and perhaps have a specific number be the threshold.. In reply to Stafford never had a bad by Will Allen. In reply to Injury luck seems to at by owleabf. Will their penchant for slugging out victories continue with a tough second half schedule ahead? The Cowboys remained in second place in defensive DVOA, with the New England Patriots and Bills switching places in first and Down If you recover, that's the very definition on luck, situational probabilities notwithstanding. by Team; as of a Specific Week; Single Game DVOA. The players obviously don't like the terrible officiating, but I guess the players association is incapable of doing anything about it. But the Dallas Cowboys leapt into second place -- and first place in the NFC -- by hammering the Minnesota Vikings 40-3. by Team; by Week 2022 Team DVOA Ratings: Offense Updated 12/06/2022 01:12 PM EST Year 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 1994 1993 1992 1991 1990 1989 1988 1987 1986 1985 1984 1983 1982 1981 The Cowboys sent tape to the league for an explanation regarding their pass rushers being put in blatant choke holds and arm bars in the Lions game and got no response. Right. non-garbage possessions in FBS vs. FBS games. *New: It's not a paywall, except on Mondays! Now, my opinion of their offense may be unduly affected by Jefferson making incredible catches.On the other hand, I really do think their defense has improved. Two picks, two fumbles by Minnesota, although the Bills only get credit for one of those fumbles because one of them was the aborted play (incomplete backwards pass, I think). in. 4th in QBR, 6th in DYAR. Revised as of 12/07/22, through Week 13. who knows ? But they all are competition for the rest of the league. In reply to "It's all rendered moot now by Joey-Harringto. In reply to Do the Vikings have a big by owleabf. by Team; as of a Specific Week; Single Game DVOA by. Down The exception will be snap counts, which will still be available to everyone Monday but now will be updated earlier. Of course not. How much negative credit does the Bills offense get? Spot on. by Team; by Week if a quarterback consistently fumbles in when he gets sacked (hello Tannehill), the average probability of a sack fumble resulting in a turnover is more interesting than whether the specific circumstances of a single sack made it extremely likely that the offense would recover. Buffalo had a much higher success rate on offense, 55% to 41%. Explore sample content below to see what you're missing. Opponent adjustments are now at full strength. To save people some time, please use the following format for all complaints: is clearly ranked because . The Bills had already moved back into the No. Consider that this team's dvoa is worse than the lowly disappointing Raiders. But -- here's the biggest difference between this game and the Bills-Vikings game -- the Commanders ran 81 plays compared to just 47 for the Eagles. Until you define the Xs and Ys, its all just feelings and narrative. 11 last week), the No. by Team; by Week In reply to Bills Endzone Fumble by wludford. Since 2006 But they won big while the Philadelphia Eagles (now fourth overall) narrowly avoided an upset at the hands of the Indianapolis Colts and the Baltimore Ravens (third) struggled offensively in a 13-3 win over the Carolina Panthers. The Eagles were at 25.0% DVOA and the Commanders at 16.8% DVOA. If you want, break the range into rankings by quintiles or by values of stddev, to create tiers of boom-or-bust. Every incompletion is effectively a bust. From the Football Outsiders glossary: The main statistic used on Football Outsiders, DVOA breaks down the entire season play-by-play, comparing success on each play to the league average based on a number of variables including down, distance, location on field, current score gap, quarter, and opponent quality. DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) takes every single play during the season and compares success to a league-average baseline based on situation and opponent. Will Georgia's Balanced Attack Win Another Championship? OFFENSE and DEFENSE DVOA are adjusted for opponent and performance indoors and consider all fumbles, kept or lost, as equal value. That division is not as impressive as the AFC East in DVOA, but the entire division is also at .500 or above. Sports Info Solutions marked Hurts with 3.7 air yards per attempt against the Cardinals, his lowest mark this year by more than a yard. But the Dallas Cowboys leapt into second place -- and first place in the NFC -- by hammering the Minnesota Vikings 40-3. DVOA measures not just yardage, but yardage towards a first down: Five yards on third-and-4 are worth more than five yards on first-and-10 and much more than five Needless to say, this is the best duo in the league by a comfortable margin. Down His numbers aren't bad, but he was in a very good offense (and team) and he made some really bad throws at times. The last time we came out flat and stayed flat long enough to get boatraced was week 11 vs. the Colts last season. The Vikings have been doing a lot of failing on early downs, then throwing for 12 yards on 3rd and 8. 49ers 2, Rams 6, Saints 10, Falcons 11, 2. Those fumbles are almost always recovered by the offense, and I give no credit to the defense on those plays because the defense has nothing to do with a bad exchange. NFL Week 10 - The Buffalo Bills may have fallen to the Minnesota Vikings in the most exciting game of the year, but we still think they are the best team in the NFL.The Bills are back on top of the Football Outsiders DVOA ratings despite the loss. https://www.footballoutsiders.com/quick-reads/2022/kenneth-walker-and-legacy-boom-or-bust-backs. I did a little bit of research into where the differences are between DVOA and these other methodologies. Ratings and supporting data are calculated from the results ofnon-garbage possessions in FBS vs. FBS games. I get the theory of expecting fumbles to balance out, but I wish there was a way to add context. The Patriots allowed a 40.5% defensive rushing DVOA against the Baltimore Ravens in Week 3, led by Lamar Jackson's 107 rushing yards and a touchdown on 11 carries. Well, if your average play is X yards, you could define boom-or-bust as, over 50% of plays are 1 standard deviation from the mean. Minnesota recovered all four fumbles in this game. 8 in the league with a team DVOA of 14.1 percent. I see mean regression happening and barely budging their TO differential because of those insane splits. WebMIKE TANIER has been writing Football Outsiders Almanac chapters for so long that he feels like Ringo making yet another special guest appearance during a Paul McCartney show. The Vikings plummeted from 17th to 23rd with Sunday's loss. But what does it say about future games? Washington recovered four of the five fumbles in this game, including all three Philadelphia fumbles. I saw the Bills explicably get destroyed by the Colts a year ago; a game that was even more embarassing than the score would indicate. We know you are here for the FREE analytics, not the ads. I think Stafford's reputation is now cemented because of that super bowl win. We preview the game with some assistance from Bolts from the Blue. Turnover rate (DTO) is the percentage of opponent offensive drives that end with an interception or fumble. Stafford, Donald, Kupp: Bang, Marry, or Dump? That's no doubt true in general, but I think that's not true with some particular players. I'd be curious how we would view Jared Goff if they had won that super bowl with him doing as little as he did on offense. They lead the NFL with a 28.6% pressure rate. 1993 AFC West (8.8) I'd also want to say that the variance is interesting. That's a sizeable difference, and it seems to be entirely related to the value of Minnesota's punt returns. Big plays in q4 win tight games. Not that either team will accomplish much this year, but I find it humorous that Goff has a +17% passing DVOA compared to Stafford's -9.6% (to be fair, Goff has a very good O-line, and Stafford's is trash), and the Rams' pick they traded away to the Lions has a decent shot of being higher than the Lions' own pick. Since the Packers moved on from star wideout Davante Adams, Rodgers has failed to get on the same page as his receivers. Injury luck, fumble luck, and schedule luck are the most significant areas of superiority the current regime has shown, compared to the old, so far. I don't watch from behind the sofa. the ST coach is a dude. Football Outsiders content published by ESPN. As the season rolls along, the focus will narrow in on the specifics, but for this week, many of the featured players and units are big-picture projections for the teams in question. Seahawks 1, 49ers 6, Cardinals 10, Rams 12, 2t. Buffalo outgained the Vikings on a per play basis, 6.75 to 6.18. Whatever happened to good old American names like Dave or Jim?. It's your argument. They're 25th in pass DVOA since Week 4, below such dominant aerial attacks as Chicago and Tennessee. is way better than this. Historical Lookups. Because DVOA discounts fumbles and caps big plays, it discounts both plays. More precisely, it says the Bills were significantly better than the Vikings at the sort of things that correlate to future success. Ohio State, Alabama, and Georgia are a trio of powerhouse programs that started the season way out in front of the pack, and despite chaos wreaking havoc among the masses, they're still hanging out in an exclusive tier. Take it as you will, but according to reporting from the Athletic the fumbled snap was actually caused in part by a shift from Harrison Phillips in response to their audible on the line. The Vikings have been outgained by their opponents on a per-play basis, 5.92 to 5.52. They are catching a bit of the 2021 Patriots analytical alchemy and may be overrated. With a by Vincent Verhei. EPA per play at RBSDM.com doesn't list an overall rating but has the Vikings 12th on offense and 13th on defense. That still makes them one of the worst 8-1 teams ever, if not the absolute worst 8-1 team ever. I was a bit disappointed. In reply to I agree with all of this by Spanosian Magn. But how much of that strong EPA on defense is caused by Josh Allen's aborted snap fumble on his own goal line and the Vikings recovering it for a touchdown? The Miami Dolphins were one of this week's big movers, climbing from 12th to seventh with a hefty 39-17 win over Cleveland. The Buffalo Bills clung to the top spot in DVOA entering Monday Night Football in Week 11. In reply to They are a very weird team by Kaepernicus. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vAy-mW6Kg9EHere's the Bear's game. The next three fumbles might have members of the opposing team near them, and would be no more predictive than these three. 2022 Team DVOA Ratings: Defense Updated 12/06/2022 01:12 PM EST Year 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 1994 1993 1992 1991 1990 1989 1988 1987 1986 1985 1984 1983 1982 1981 ESPN: Best Veteran Contracts on Each Team, Playoff Previews (previously Game Previews). third-strongest "surprise win" since 2010, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vAy-mW6Kg9E, Another way to think about strong divisions, ESPN: Best Veteran Contracts on Each Team, Playoff Previews (previously Game Previews). Now, there are two ways to do this. Creator of DVOA andDYAR Web2022 F+ ratings combining FEI and SP+. They have the most runs over 20 yards of all 32 units, and are averaging five yards per carry. The two offensive fumbles by the Vikings never had a realistic chance of going to the bills. Founder of Football Outsiders Editor-in-Chief Creator of DVOA and DYAR Worcester, MA. Gambling problem? My eyes only differ with DVOA, with regard to the Vikings, in one small way. A team that scores a long TD every play is the best team ever. In reply to Stafford is 34. Rk Team Rec FBS DFEI DDE Rk DTD Rk DVD Rk DFD Rk DBD Rk DTO Rk 1 Georgia 14-1 13-1 1.93 1.42 1 .062 1 .169 1 .562 2 .169 15 .131 33 2 In reply to I believe that any gain over by Will Allen. Team; Week; Stat Splits by. He returns in 20% of simulations by Week 15, 60% of simulations by Week 16, and all simulations by Week 17. You may be tempted to disregard it as an outlier, but a better approach would be to use it to assign better values to extraordinary plays that better align with their impact on the game.". Historical Lookups. The first lesson you learn as a fan is you aren't the smartest guy in the room. The Eagles had five different drives of just three plays, not counting their final desperation play. He returns in 20% of simulations by Week 15, 60% of simulations by Week 16, and all simulations by Week 17. What If Justin Herbert Isn't All That Great? DVOA Analysis. At the moment the only positions that can exploit these athletic mismatches in the NFL are on offense or in the secondary. He sheds blocks quickly, has incredibly powerful hands, and has twitchy acceleration. Maybe something like "over X%(50?) NFL Week 10 - The Green Bay Packers have been in a state of disarray for most of the 2022 season.Quarterback Aaron Rodgers is on pace to post his second-worst passing DVOA since becoming a full-time starter. 1) Standard Deviation/z-score methodology assumes normality, which Im not sure is the case here. We probably don't need to explain why. Aaron Schatz. THE SHORT VERSION: DVOA is a method of evaluating teams, units, or players. The Vikings have nothing really in common with the other teams on that table. With a record of 8-4 and wins in five of the last six weeks, even the advanced statistics are favoring the Dolphins. What kind of name is that anyway? The Georgia Bulldogs aren't quite as good on defense as they were last year, the Stetson Bennett and company have improved on offense, making them the favorites in the College Football Playoff. In reply to But how much of that strong by Aaron Brooks G. 6.85 vs 6.32 -- by virtue of being at the 1, the Bills had a negative expected EPA at the snap. A model cant hate something that is undefinable. I think Minn has won bc of turnover advantage and they've have started on their own 31.4 vs 26 yd line for opps. The entire NFC East makes the playoffs in 12.8% of today's simulations, and at least three of the NFC East teams make it in 88.6% of simulations. So in games Viking's fans have cared about, 21 of 24 have been one score games. "I am not sure what everyone's opinion on Goff is, but I feel more confident that he's very much in that volatile tier 3 QB mix ". Genuinely curious as to why the Bills defensive DVOA was -15.0% in the game while giving up 6.18 yards per play. Use promo code DERRIK to save 10% on any FO+ membership and give half the cost of your membership to tip Derrik. by Team; by Week by DVOA the Vikings have actually been a disappointment this year (they were projected to be a very good team in the FO almanac). Baltimore simulation assumes that Lamar Jackson will miss Week 14. Week 13 Staff Picks: Is Chris Olave Best Bet for OROY? How Philadelphia Eagles Took the Fight to Tennessee Titans, Why Cincinnati Bengals Are Kansas City's Worst Nightmare, Waiver Wire Week 14: Playoff Push Pickups, The Wild World of the 2022 Minnesota Vikings, Tyler Huntley, Justin Fields, and the QB Rushing Quandary, Week 13 DVOA Preview: Chiefs Slide, Cowboys Ambush, USC Falls Hard, TCU Makes Playoff Despite Loss, Burrow-to-Chase Returns; 49ers' Purdy Predicament, Sunday NFL Liveblog: Bengals, Chiefs Lead Loaded Schedule, TCU, USC Put Playoff Bids on the Line in Championship Week, All-32: Michael Gallup Set for Big Game Against Colts, Micah Parsons' DPOY Problem; Partying with the Broncos, How Bengals Beat Titans at Their Own Game, Breaking Down the Playoff Picture, from Eagles to Texans. I agree with all of this. That said, while I anticipated a down year, I did not anticipate a trainwreck season. Will it sustain ? NFL playoff picture and clinching scenarios Week 14 - Through TNF results. 10? I felt it during the 05 season with the Colts, where every week felt like either doomsday or relief. And of course you have the Bills and Vikings game, where the booth review declined to review the Gabe Davis "catch". And he was very good in the playoffs too. dvoa does favor consistent gains over big plays. The Bills don't get credit for that one, in the first quarter. Before Seattle he did the same thing at USC, creating one of the most dominant runs in college football history. Stuff like that occasionally happens between mid-November and January, so who knows? Use promo code TANIER to save 10% on any FO+ membership and give half the cost of your membership to tip Mike Tanier. Historical Lookups. Welcome to All-32, a game-by-game preview of every matchup on the NFL slate each week. 2022 Team DVOA Ratings: Overall Updated 12/06/2022 01:12 PM EST Year 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 1994 1993 1992 1991 1990 1989 1988 1987 1986 1985 1984 1983 1982 1981 15 special teams (down from No. A month ago, bad qbs looked like 44 year old Tom Brady when they played the Vikings. You do not often see a huge gap like that where the team with the better DVOA loses the game. It completely invalidates the whole exercise. i agree the defence is improving. ), DVOA also doesn't know the Vikings faced Bridgewater and not Tua (inflates their rating for the MIA game). If I had to bet meaningful money on which guy to draft at age 22, it's not a close call. by Team; by Week I thought the Bears game was a perfect microcosm of the Goff experience. 5 yards of start position a game seems like a bigger deal to me. Teams with larger standard deviation of play success/value. 27 defense (down from No. The issue right now is the gap between the top pass rushers and offensive tackles is so large that refs have literally just stopped calling everything against the best in the league. The top two teams in DVOA both lost this weekend, Pollard finishes as the best player at his position in Playoff Previews (previously Game Previews). The second lesson you learn is you don't know what you think you know. The highest correlated factor to explaining the outcome of any particular game is points scored: it has a 100% backwards-looking explanatory power. 1992 NFC East (8.0) Mustn't forget that pesky tennis elbow. I don't understand the idea of wanting to cut the Vikings a break because their fumbles were safe. I love how you have a stat called Dave, reminds me of the cop from Harold and Kumar: Kumar? by Team; by Week In my opinion last year's team folds when they're down 10-27, there's something different this year. That would suggest weightings of 0, 1, 2, and 3. The Dukes have a suffocating defense and a weak schedule, and they're playing this season with nothing to lose. Is there a way to see 4th quarter DVOA ? Almost everything the Eagles called was an RPO, a screen, or a one-on-one ball to A.J. Their 24.0% defensive rushing DVOA performance against the Chicago Bears saw the Patriots give up 82 yards and a touchdown on 14 carries by Justin Fields. Stafford, Donald, Kupp: Bang, Marry, or Dump? Look at some of Minnesota's other stats and that DVOA ranking does make some sense. Things get a bit screwy if you have two teams with under -100% DVOA, but that's not a significant worry - extremely unlikely after one game played, ridiculously unlikely after two, unimaginable after more - and can be fixed by multiplying 1+DVOA for both teams, taking the negative of the absolute value of the result, and multiplying by 1+DVOA for the remaining two teams. On a more serious note, the Bills have in theory all the ingredients of a modern NFL team. I'm aware of that. WebFootball Outsiders' revolutionary metrics that break down every single play of the NFL season. In reply to The way to do a weighted average by rmjohnston. All times listed as Eastern. Basically it looks like their offense is going to get better and the defense is going to get significantly worse if the turn over numbers regress to the mean at the same time. WebBe the best Seattle Seahawks fan you can be with Bleacher Report. The Eagles played a sloppy game like the Cowboys did, hence the reference to letting bad officiating impact a game. If you're interested in our game picks, you can find them on this page. It's interesting to observe that play wasn't the biggest delta-EPA play in the game -- Cook's TD was. Unfortunately, he was pretty bad at it - so their return game might improve now that he doesn't have the job. In reply to What even is a boom or bust by takeleavebelieve. Web2022 F+ ratings combining FEI and SP+. DVOA of defense against receivers does not include sacks or passes with no intended receiver listed. Or, we can look at the average of all four teams' DVOA ranks. The difference of 6.8 to 6.1 yards per play seems huge, but ultimately it comes out to the Bills outgaining the Vikings by 5 yards for the game. When you ask how much competition the second place team had for second place, you look at the next two teams. WebGeorgia remains on top of our college football ratings, with a Big Ten/SEC split in the top five. Chiefs 3, Chargers 5, Broncos 6, Raiders 10, Seahawks 20. Keep up with the latest storylines, expert analysis, highlights, scores and more. With the seven-team playoff field in each conference, it is now possible for an entire division to make the playoffs in the same year. Theres a lot more than two ways to think about it. Stafford's tenure with the Lions teased of a possible higher upside while Goffs comparatively rosier surroundings warned of a dangerous downside. They remind me a lot of the Manning/Dungy Colts - an outstanding pass offense that gets ahead quickly, and a defense built around defending the pass to protect those leads. NFL Week 10 - The Green Bay Packers have been in a state of disarray for most of the 2022 season.Quarterback Aaron Rodgers is on pace to post his second-worst passing DVOA since becoming a full-time starter. 5? We'll see how things play out over the next few weeks, as I mentioned, the Vikes play DVOA's #4th, #9th and #12th ranked teams. I guess after the Super Bowl, torquing a guy to the ground by his face isn't a penalty anymore. They have the most runs over 20 yards of all 32 units, and are averaging five yards per carry. The only one that was close was the Allen fumble in the end zone, it doesn't make sense to treat all of those recoveries as fluke 50-50 plays when only one of them was. What about the NFC East? In reply to I am kind of glad that it by theslothook. Terms of Use | Privacy Policy | Cookie Policy | Responsible Gaming, Week 11 DVOA Preview: Cowboys Top the NFC, Support Football Outsiders' independent media and . They also have 10 more red zone entries compared to their opponents, In reply to so Buffalo defence gets by jmaron. They rank 26th in DVOA allowed on running back targets while surrendering a league-high 8.6 running back targets per game. Week 13 DVOA Preview: Chiefs Slide, Cowboys Ambush; USC Falls Hard, TCU Makes Playoff Despite Loss; & Support Derrik Support Football Outsiders' independent media and . Their 1st Q3 TD was in week 7. The run defense is suspect, but if you are going to be weak at something, you'd take run defense every time. Follow Email Archive . 2022 AFC East through Week 10 (7.25) Just because these two weren't damaging doesn't predict that the next two won't be. Detroit Lions Receivers Key to Daily Fantasy. As I understand it, every year FO evaluates their metrics and attempts to improve their predictability. It's wild now that the perception has flipped and analytics love Allen's offense but the tape is concerning. The Cowboys lead the NFL with 42 sacks entering MNF. 22 last week), and the No. Skewing models to predict once-in-a-decade events inherently results in them being less accurate at predicting everyday events. The current average for the AFC East is 16.6%, which would rank fifth since 2002. What If Justin Herbert Isn't All That Great? As for providing more specific context to each individual fumble, that's a fool's errand, IMHO. Maybe I am just projecting this, but they feel more fragile than a team this strong should. The playoff odds stuff on FO converts DVOA advantage to a winning percentage, so that could be used instead. Needless to say, this is the best duo in the league by a comfortable margin. Allen has 5 (5!) I think all that can be said of them is that they're high variance, with the 'top' being very high, and the 'valley' being about NFL average. 2021 Team DVOA Ratings: Defense Updated 12/06/2022 01:12 PM EST Year 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 1994 1993 1992 1991 1990 1989 1988 1987 1986 1985 1984 1983 1982 1981 They did not want Jalen Hurts three- or five-step dropping from shotgun without play-action. "Fizzle or bust" comes to mind. The top two teams in DVOA both lost this weekend, and they lost despite both teams having a higher DVOA rating than their opponents. Since last January, it's really been about what happens this coming January, and that may be how the McDermott/Allen years go. In reply to "This game tests the limits by Lost Ti-Cats Fan. For 3 of the 4 fumbles there were no Bills players with a realistic chance to recover. 8? Fumbles after a reception are another matter completely, with the defense recovering 60% of the time (same source). 11 last week), the No. Historical Lookups. Visalia, CA. Maybe that's kind of true if a coach devotes more of emphasis to it at the expense of other areas, but not in the way most fans think. by Team; as of a Specific Week; Single Game DVOA. After starting the year with a league-best 41.1% offensive DVOA, the Ravens only have played one game with an offensive DVOA above 20% and two games with a DVOA above 10%. WebDVOA measures a team's efficiency by comparing success on every single play to a league average based on situation and opponent. If there are any TCU fans still reading that haven't yet thrown their device across the room in disgust at these numbers and the obvious disrespect, I can certainly understand the perspective that these ratings and projections are meaningless in the context of producing a Big 12 champion.The Horned Frogs are undefeated (8-0 overall, 7-0 2021 Team DVOA Ratings: Overall Updated 12/06/2022 01:12 PM EST Year 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 1994 1993 1992 1991 1990 1989 1988 1987 1986 1985 1984 1983 1982 1981 Offense All EPA/Success Rate stats are via rbsdm.com When you ask how much competition did the division winner have? you look at the other three teams. by Team; by Week Explore sample content below to see what you're missing. Productive in the right circumstances, but can't really be trusted to be a long-term solution at quarterback. Use promo code DERRIK to save 10% on any FO+ membership and give half the cost of your membership to tip Derrik. RBSDM.com does not list EPA for special teams but ESPN FPI is split into offense, defense, and special teams. WebDVOA measures a team's efficiency by comparing success on every single play to a league average based on situation and opponent. DVOA Analysis. More info available here! 11 last week), the No. When you play sloppy like the Cowboys, you have to expect to get ref'd like them. Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Replay this season w/ the same teams being fielded, and the Vikings could easily be 3-6 or 5-4 or anything really without much of a DVOA difference. Their 24.0% defensive rushing DVOA performance against the Chicago Bears saw the Patriots give up 82 yards and a touchdown on 14 carries by Justin Fields. The motto on this year's Vikings is "situational matters" and watching the games it feels like there is some truth to it, I wonder if there is a way to account for win probability more than EPA/play. Football Outsiders ranks Miami at No. WebBe the best Seattle Seahawks fan you can be with Bleacher Report. In reply to As a wise poster recently by takeleavebelieve. They do have a +2 interception margin (eight thrown, 10 taken away) but their outstanding +8 turnover margin is mostly the product of recovering 67% of fumbles (not including muffed kicks). Now, the best division since 2002 is the 2004 AFC East, where the average team had 19.8% DVOA. In terms of DVOA, the Jaguars now have the No. In fact, their DVOA rating moved up this week.. You could do a weighted average, giving less weight to the top team in the division, a little more weight to the second team, etc. Obviously not enough if their overall DVOA is +41.7% for the game. Except even that team with its 16th ranked offense is miles ahead of this team, despite Goff's reputation buried in mud by that point. Part of that is their favoring towards two-high shells and blitzes, both of which can lead the quarterback to force the ball to the running back, but as the DVOA suggests, they're still subpar at stopping those targets That would suggest the two teams were much more even than the DVOA output suggests. by Team; by Week https://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/202211130buf.htm. A reminder that all our free stats pages, including DVOA and player position stats, require registration to view. But Football Outsiders DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) rankings has the Cardinals ranking only above the Houston Texans, making them the second-worst team in the league. Detroit Lions Receivers Key to Daily Fantasy. 2022 Team DVOA Ratings: Defense Updated 12/06/2022 01:12 PM EST Year 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 1994 1993 1992 1991 1990 1989 1988 1987 1986 1985 1984 1983 1982 1981 I need to learn more about how ESPN's special teams methodology works, but Jalen Reagor is in the bottom half of the league in yards per return and has fumbled twice (and recovered both of those fumbles). The Eagles called their passing offense against the Cardinals like they were scared of true dropback passes. 2021 Team DVOA Ratings: Defense Updated 12/06/2022 01:12 PM EST Year 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 1994 1993 1992 1991 1990 1989 1988 1987 1986 1985 1984 1983 1982 1981 It seems like Vikings have played their best football in the 4 quarter. Football Outsiders playoff odds, snap counts, and the FO+ database are now all updated through Week 10. The only reason you might say it "favors" consistent gains is because long gains aren't all that predictive and don't happen often. 1991 NFC West (8.75) Since the Packers moved on from star wideout Davante Adams, Rodgers has failed to get on the same page as his receivers. Not sure how it's happening but that 50 to 60 yards a game. Etc. 7 total isn't much (t-8th with 8 more teams), so they're above average but not some insane outlier like last year's Seahawks who had 15 plays of 40+ yards on just 954 plays (Vikings have 7 in 590). WebSave 10% & Support Mike Tanier Support Football Outsiders' independent media and . This year the DBs have been getting key, 4th quarter / endzone interceptions. Funky site stuff going down. Explore sample content below to see what you're missing. If they revert to that, they could still end up losing 8 games. And even beating the Titans this year too. 15 special teams (down from No. And all three of those ended in wins. pf plays are either under 2 yards(bust) or over Y yards(boom). Editor-in-Chief At this point, we'e gotten to a completely ridiculous point with the Minnesota Vikings and our "Worst DVOA at X-X record" tables. But occasionally you run into a bad matchup or just come out flat on offense, and the whole thing falls apart. Fumble luck is fickle. Anyways, if they want to win a playoff game, their defense still needs to get bettter. Isn't the first play more valuable precisely because it was from your own 20? The Cowboys are also quietly getting outstanding play from their special teams. And I was mercifully spared from watching the Jags Bills game. The run defence has also improved since the start of season, and Hunter is having bigger impact. Our special teams methodology puts them 25th! So on paper, this is still the team to beat. near the middle of the pack in DVOA and DYAR, both rushing and receiving. That 2nd half of the 1st quarter, the 1st half of the 2nd quarter, and most of the 3rd quarter is just an offensive lull. In terms of DVOA, the Jaguars are the No. In terms of DVOA, the Jaguars now have the No. Web2022 F+ ratings combining FEI and SP+. The Commanders had only one drive of three plays. After starting the year with a league-best 41.1% offensive DVOA, the Ravens only have played one game with an offensive DVOA above 20% and two games with a DVOA above 10%. The onus would be on you to prove the normality of the sample before proceeding to use standard deviation or z-score. Pro Football Reference SRS, based solely on points scored and allowed plus schedule, has the Vikings tied for sixth. On Tuesday morning when we post the update with Monday Night Football added in, all of the free stats pages become free again. They are the worst team in the league when it comes to turnovers on offense. 2022 Team DVOA Ratings: Offense Updated 12/06/2022 01:12 PM EST Year 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 1994 1993 1992 1991 1990 1989 1988 1987 1986 1985 1984 1983 1982 1981 Micah has to learn how to deal with it before he takes the next leap because the NFL is not going to let monster pass rushers destroy fantasy football leagues around the country. I thought I would go back and look at the best divisions in DVOA history to see how this year's AFC East compares. I guess I can't quantify what makes a boom or bust team. It was a really bad play! Yes. Micah Parsons and the Cowboys pass rush are leading the charge, of course. Overall records (Rec) and records against FBS opponents (FBS) are specified. Shane Beamer is a chip off the old block(ed punt), and South Carolina is riding special teams to a special season. The off-season chatter suggesting the freshly-ringed Stafford should be a HOF candidate was absolutely stupid/overblown, but there's no doubting he was good last year. The stuff that happens to Bosa is a direct result of his power and acceleration. 22 last week), and the No. In reply to It's so disappointing the by GwillyGecko. The anchor on their special teams ranking is the XP/FG value, and you're right, that hasn't hurt the Vikings yet (other than all of the Pepto Bismol and Alka Seltzer they need to ingest). You can argue it's still bad process, though. Week 13 DVOA Preview: Chiefs Slide, Cowboys Ambush; USC Falls Hard, TCU Makes Playoff Despite Loss; & Support Derrik Support Football Outsiders' independent media and . I am not sure what everyone's opinion on Goff is, but I feel more confident that he's very much in that volatile tier 3 QB mix as opposed to being in the mitch Trubisky camp of quarterbacks. They rank 26th in DVOA allowed on running back targets while surrendering a league-high 8.6 running back targets per game. ESPN FPI has the Vikings 10th. Aaron Schatz. It may just be worded wrong, but giving the Vikings no credit for that fumble also makes no sense, even if it was a clean snap, (which just for the sake of argument we'll say the Vikings defensive shifts and penetration had no effect on the fumbled snap), the Vikings D line clearly got a lot of penetration, and the play would've likely been a safety anyway which would've been a good play for the Vikings and should warrant at least some credit. WebBe the best Seattle Seahawks fan you can be with Bleacher Report. Terms of Use | Privacy Policy | Cookie Policy | Responsible Gaming. Parsons is so fast and powerful that he is going to get held and not get called. In reply to RE: Packers special teams by big10freak. Before Seattle he did the same thing at USC, creating one of the most dominant runs in college football history. We know you are here for the FREE analytics, not the ads. NCAA Week 12 November 23, 3:25 pm ET It's curious how traditional stats like total yardage, and time of possession show an even game, some more advanced stats like EPA per play show either an even game or a game where the Vikings played somewhat better, all of which coincide with what actually happened in the game, but DVOA says the Bills were significantly better than the Vikings. That meant it took two first rounders plus a downgrade in age to trade lower downside for greater upside. Rk Team Rec FBS FEI OFEI Rk DFEI Rk NDE Rk ELS Rk GLS Rk ALS Rk 1 Georgia 14-1 13-1 1.65 1.58 3 1.93 1 2.65 1 2.23 2 5.72 2 9.78 2 2 Alabama Explore sample content below to see what you're missing. WebGeorgia remains on top of our college football ratings, with a Big Ten/SEC split in the top five. by Team; as of a Specific Week; Single Game DVOA. But it was very close, and that's before we get into things we don't account for in DVOA like completely missed facemask penalties. Detroit Lions Receivers Key to Daily Fantasy. Patriots 2, Bills 3, Jets 4, Dolphins 22. , 102 comments, Last at 18 Nov 2022, 1:28pm. by Team; as of a Specific Week; Single Game DVOA by. Historical Lookups. by Team; as of a Specific Week; Single Game DVOA. In reply to 1) Standard Deviation/z by takeleavebelieve. They will still be good because they are +1.3 net yards per play. In reply to They remind me a lot of the by takeleavebelieve. Micah is going to have to figure out how to beat holds and double teams just like the rest of the elite pass rushers in the NFL. I am kind of glad that it has because it dispenses this view that special teams is all about coaching and if you just had the right coaching in place, special teams would be fixed. The games we've lost we had 2nd half leads we couldn't protect. Part of that is their favoring towards two-high shells and blitzes, both of which can lead the quarterback to force the ball to the running back, but as the DVOA suggests, they're still subpar at stopping those targets In reply to "but DVOA says the Bills by Lost Ti-Cats Fan. 2022 Team DVOA Ratings: Overall Updated 12/06/2022 01:12 PM EST Year 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 1994 1993 1992 1991 1990 1989 1988 1987 1986 1985 1984 1983 1982 1981 15 special teams (down from No. Brad Johnson was better than you remember. Anyway, it's certainly possible that DVOA is underrating the Vikings a little bit. It takes every single play during the NFL season and compares each one to a league-average baseline based on situation. ESPN: Best Veteran Contracts on Each Team, Playoff Previews (previously Game Previews). The league doesn't care about questionable officiating at all. Again, that's a huge change in EPA that we aren't counting in DVOA at all because it says nothing about how good the Vikings defense is. Bosa got held the entire SB against Chiefs and drew almost no calls. Especially with passing plays, where you will have a huge cluster of 0 yard plays, ie incompletions. Left tackle Jordan Mailata missed the entire game, center Jason Kelce went down halfway through, and guard Landon Dickerson only played about 20 minutes. In reply to Is there a way to see 4th by vikingflagship. Explore sample content below to see what you're missing. They have horses on defense and perhaps the best pass offense in the league. But Bisaccias units performed better overall than his predecessor DeCamillis's did. We could look at the average of all four teams in DVOA. This means they could win it all (regardless of whether or not they win the division and get the bye), or they could be one and done (again, regardless of whether they win the division or get the bye). Explore sample content below to see what you're missing. You're missing the point. Football Outsiders content published by ESPN. As if the elderly didn't have enough to worry about these past 2years the Vikings have had negative DVOA in 6 of 9 games this season (!!! They are the 3rd best team in the league when it comes to creating turnovers. DVOA ratings represent value from the point of view of the defense, not fantasy football players, and include items that have no impact on fantasy football (such as how many interceptions are caught on passes intended to certain receivers). Founder of Football Outsiders Editor-in-Chief Creator of DVOA and DYAR Worcester, MA. by Team; by Week What I am talking about is incredibly strong/fast players blowing off a lineman with a swim/rip move and getting stopped when the blocker is beside or behind them. The Buffalo Bills clung to the top spot in DVOA entering Monday Night Football in Week 11. But Football Outsiders DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) rankings has the Cardinals ranking only above the Houston Texans, making them the second-worst team in the league. Basiclyn high rates of explosive or failed plays. Philadelphia outgained the Commanders on a per play basis, 5.91 to 4.34. Week 13 Staff Picks: Is Chris Olave Best Bet for OROY? Use promo code DERRIK to save 10% on any FO+ membership and give half the cost of your membership to tip Derrik. That may or may not be his fault - they could just be bad players, as you're getting at - but it's also entirely possible that they simply hired a different coach, not a better one. 8 in the league with a team DVOA of 14.1 percent. With the Ravens, it's worries about the offense. As a result of all that pressure, Cowboys opponents average an NFL-low 174.5 passing yards per game and just 5.6 yards per passing play, the third-lowest figure in the NFL. 2021 Team DVOA Ratings: Overall Updated 12/06/2022 01:12 PM EST Year 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 1994 1993 1992 1991 1990 1989 1988 1987 1986 1985 1984 1983 1982 1981 Terms of Use | Privacy Policy | Cookie Policy | Responsible Gaming. so Buffalo defence gets credit for the right guard stepping on the QBs foot which results in the QB fumbling trying to pitch the ball to the RB? Vegas agrees, making Minnesota a home underdog to Dallas this week. It's very similar to LeBron/Shaq in the NBA getting less calls than they should because they do not demonstrate the proper reaction to draw the foul even though the impact/position of the offender is the same. I haven't seen a study that looks at backward passes, but fumbles after non-QB runs and forward passes have the roughly same probabilities, so I would use that number (40/60) as a guestimate. The goal is to provide a look at the most critical part of each game with a marriage of data and film study. The Wild World of the 2022 Minnesota Vikings. At that point, almost for opposite reasons, there was uncertainty about what Matthew Stafford and Jared Goff were as quarterbacks. 2016 NFC East (6.25) 1983 NFC West (7.25) Not sure how interesting that would be and it's difficult to deal with the cluster at 0. While Hurts' inconsistencies as a true dropback passer play some part in that, the depleted offensive line was the biggest issue on Sunday. Do the Vikings have a big number of big plays? I added information to that table on how each of these teams did at the end of the season, but I honestly don't think you learn anything about the Vikings from that. First down rate (DFD) is the percentage of opponent offensive drives that earn at least one first down. AZ, CO, CT, IL, IN, IA, KS, LA, (select parishes), MD, MI, NH, NJ, NY, OR, PA, TN, VA, WV, WY, CA-ONT only.Eligibility restrictions apply. Odds & lines subject to change. At 0:51 you can see Parsons in an arm bar, at 4:32 you can see another rusher in an obvious arm bar, and at 9:25 you can see Parsons yanked forward into the ground. by Team; as of a Specific Week; Single Game DVOA. Even in the by Will Allen. Use promo code, Sunday NFL Liveblog: Eagles, Giants Fight for Playoffs, Khalil Mack Key to Chargers' Chances Against Dolphins, Jason Kelce's All-Time Block Leads Eagles Over Titans. I would argue that it is more interesting to optimize for future fumbles, not the specifics of any single fumble. Brown, with only a few other plays sprinkled throughout to keep the defense honest. Our Post-Game Win Expectancy formula says that based on the stat splits of this game, we would normally expect the Bills to have won the game 98.6% of the time. The TCU Horned Frogs had their best game of the year against Iowa State, and their resume includes nine wins against FEI top-50 opponents. ints in the red zone since the bye, and two games we lost by 3 each. Explore sample content below to see what you're missing. In reply to The facemask was a reference by Aaron Brooks G. Explore sample content below to see what you're missing. After starting the year with a league-best 41.1% offensive DVOA, the Ravens only have played one game with an offensive DVOA above 20% and two games with a DVOA above 10%. KaVontae Turpin has produced a 52-yard punt return and 63 yard kickoff return. Terms at draftkings.com/sportsbook. by Team; by Week Football Outsiders rank Dolphins top 10 in DVOA metric through 13 weeks, Dolphins vs. Chargers preview: LAs offense hampering Justin Herbert, Injuries decimating defense. analytics you can't get anywhere else. 14 offense, the No. In terms of DVOA, the Jaguars now have the No. South Carolina's Sensational Special Teams, ESPN: Best Veteran Contracts on Each Team, Playoff Previews (previously Game Previews). Stafford, Donald, Kupp: Bang, Marry, or Dump? In reply to Isn't the first play more by siggyllama. Use promo code DERRIK to save 10% on any FO+ membership and give half the cost of your membership to tip Derrik. I think Stafford is better and by a non-trivial amount, but not enough to justify two first rounders. Worcester, MA. 7 and moves Tampa Bay and San Francisco up. This game tests the limits and baseline values for a metric like DVOA. Stafford never had a bad healthy season after his rookie year, until this year at age 34(assuming he's healthy now), and racked up several top 10 DVOA seasons with the more frequently than not poorly coached Lions. With the Ravens, it's worries about the offense. DVOA has them 21st. 2013 NFC West (7.25) more? It takes every single play during the NFL season and compares each one to a league-average baseline based on situation. by Aaron Brooks G. 2021 Team DVOA Ratings: Overall Updated 12/06/2022 01:12 PM EST Year 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 1994 1993 1992 1991 1990 1989 1988 1987 1986 1985 1984 1983 1982 1981 Our 2022 NFL playoff picture tracker is updated through the Week 14 Thursday Night Football results. Exclusive Premium Content For Subscribers. In reply to I'd be curious how we would by theslothook. For any given total DVOA, balance is rewarded and imbalance. By DVOA's account Dallas "should" blow the Vikings out, let see what actually happens. In my opinion there is very little that differentiates Goff and Stafford other than Stafford got lucky that Tartt dropped an easily interception and he played against a mediocre Bengals in SB vs Goff had to play against a good Patriots team. * 21+ (19+ CA-ONT) (18+ NH/WY). They are over 10 percentage points worse than any other 8-1 team in DVOA history. Staff Writer Baltimore simulation assumes that Lamar Jackson will miss Week 14. The exact same play that gets you an 80 yard TD from the 20 only gets 30 from the other 30. 26 defense, and the No, 11 special teams unit. Sure, giving the Vikings credit for end zone touchdown recovery would improve the explanatory power of this particular game. (The Vikings are only responsible for the fumble in that they pinned the Bills on the goal line but we've already given the Vikings' offense credit for that by measuring the success of their previous drive.). Yea, I agree with this. In fact, their DVOA rating moved up this week.. In reply to I don't understand the idea by Noahrk. Bills 1, Dolphins 7, Jets 9, Patriots 12, 4. Maybe I am just projecting this, but they feel more fragile than a team this strong should. It's so disappointing the way Buffalo has likely blown HFA two years in a row now after beating KC in KC both years. Click here for the full table. Unfortunately, I expected FO fans to have passed the first two rules of fight club and some have not. Cowboys 1, Eagles 2, Redskins 6, Cardinals 14, Giants 17, 3. The Orange are 6-0 and already surpassed preseason expectations. That will favor the 2022 AFC East because this year's parity has put all teams a bit closer to average. Maybe he's functionally the same as Eli Manning, although I think Eli was a better player under pressure ( I don't mean in a clutch sense but literally while under pressure). Teams are ranked in order of general passing defense DVOA. Football Outsiders content published by ESPN. by Team; by Week In reply to The off-season chatter by BJR. They rank 26th in DVOA allowed on running back targets while surrendering a league-high 8.6 running back targets per game. Everyone else can see it in replay, why can't the booth? 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